When voters across the country go to the polls in two months for the midterm elections, they may decide that Washington is in need of change yet again, only two years after a Democrat took the White House and four years after the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress. Public opinion polling by Gallup reveals that most Americans are displeased with Congress and the President. However, whether this translates into a desire to switch control of Congress back to the Republicans is a complicated question. While Republicans will almost certainly pick up some seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, most analysts believe Republicans will not get enough seats to take control of Congress in 2011.
Even though voters will not have the chance to vote directly on the president in November, many analysts generally see midterm elections as a referendum on how well the current president is doing his job. If this premise is correct, the number of seats Republicans pick up in November will largely reflect how Americans feel about Barack Obama’s performance since he took office 21 months prior.
Based on polling data, the country seems to be somewhat divided on how Obama has performed, although it appears that most are not pleased. As of mid-August, Obama’s approval rating was 44.5 percent and his disapproval rating was 51 percent.
Although Obama won the presidency in 2008 quite solidly, he seems to have lost some traction among voters. In 2008, Barack Obama’s share of the vote (53 percent) was seven percentage points higher than John McCain’s, and Obama carried 28 states to McCain’s 22. Three months after he took office, President Obama’s approval rating hovered around 65 percent, but it has now dropped 20.5 percentage points.
What could explain this downward shift? Are liberals frustrated with Obama’s lack of progress? Do they feel he is compromising too much? Are conservatives angry that he is not compromising at all? The explanation is probably a combination of these factors. Looking at Obama’s approval rating three months after his inauguration to now, it appears he has lost favor with people across the political spectrum. Broken down by self-described ideology, that is, liberal, moderate, and conservative, Obama’s favorability rating has dropped by 18, 20, and 20 percentage points, respectively.
Based on these numbers, voters are likely upset about Obama’s actions for quite varying reasons. For example, liberals and some moderates may be frustrated with Obama’s decision to increase troops in Afghanistan by 30,000, while conservatives may believe that this number is too small. Or liberals may feel that Obama compromised too much on health care reform by not pushing for a public option, while conservatives may be angry that he dealt with this issue at all. The latter seems to be the message of the new Tea Party movement.
Even assuming a voter’s approval (or disapproval) of the president does indeed affect his or her decision as to which party to support in a particular Senate or Congressional race, Obama’s drop in approval ratings does not necessarily mean that Americans are gravitating towards Republicans. Because voters probably have quite distinct reasons for viewing the president less favorably, the response to these feelings will probably also be quite different. Liberals frustrated by what they see as a lack of progress on “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” for example, will almost certainly not move towards supporting a Republican as a result.
On the other hand, moderates and independents are the group most likely to decide to vote for a Republican candidate over a Democratic one as a response to a belief that Obama is leading the country in the wrong direction. Whether they also believe that Republicans are offering a better solution remains to be seen, but this is likely a key factor in the outcome this November.